Which Motorists Should Be Most Concerned When Parking?
A truck is stolen from the parking lot of a hotel. Inside it are three presidential seals, three lecterns, and $200,000 worth of electronic equipment,
including a teleprompter. The truck is recovered a few hours later—it was abandoned in the parking lot of another hotel and looted of a high-end audio system. The Department of Defense investi- gates the theft of the unguarded truck from the lot, which was monitored by closed circuit TV, but is unable to determine if this was just a crime of opportunity or whether the equipment used by President Obama to deliver speeches was specifically targeted. (Geller, 2011).
The theft of a truck from the president’s entou- rage is surely a rare occurrence, but it underscores the fact that determined thieves can steal almost any vehicle.
To begin an investigation into differential risks, it is necessary to ask, “Which cars do thieves find most attractive?” The chances of losing a vehicle
NCVSVSV
UCRCRC
F I G U R E 4.5 Trends in Motor Vehicle Thefts, United States, 1973–2013 NOTE: UCR figures include thefts of taxis, buses, trucks, and other commercial vehicles. SOURCES: FBI’s UCRs 1973–2013; BJS’s NCVSs 1973–2013.
A CLOSER LOOK AT THE V I C T IMS OF IN T ERP ERSONAL CR IMES OF V IOL ENC E AND THE FT 117
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depend upon its make, model, and year. A prime consideration centers on the appeal or black market value of the various cars, SUVs, vans, and pickup trucks to those who make a living by repeatedly fencing stolen parts. Professional thieves prowl the streets looking for specific makes and models on their shopping lists. Which parked cars do they enter and drive away most often?
The answer, in the form of a ranking of vehi- cles, should be fairly straightforward. Consumers need to know this information when shopping for used cars (brand new models do not yet have track records) if they are concerned about the chances of their vehicles spirited away or about the costs of insuring them—premiums to cover comprehensive theft and fire damage (coverage for collisions and personal injuries is more impor- tant and more expensive). In other words, crime- conscious motorists ought to be aware of how desirable or undesirable their prized possessions are to thieves cruising around. But each year, the answer to the question, “Which cars are stolen the most” depends upon which organization is asked and which criteria were used to compile the rank- ing (see Gibson, 2004). Three distinct listings that bear little resemblance to each other appear in Table 4.5.
For vehicles stolen during 2013, the list in the second column in Table 4.5 presents the ranking derived by the National Insurance Crime Bureau (NICB). The NICB analyzes police car theft reports assembled in the database maintained by the FBI’s National Crime Information Center (NCIC) each year. During 2013, about half of all stolen vehicles were made by domestic automakers and half were produced by foreign manufacturers. What the rank- ing does not show is that a high proportion of the vehicles stolen during 2013 were very old. For example, most of the nearly 54,000 Honda Accords that were stolen across the nation during 2013 first hit the road during the 1990s; relatively few Accords manufactured after 1997 were taken from their rightful owners (not shown in Table 4.5). This pattern is surprising at first until it is realized that the older cars are stolen to be stripped of their sheet metal parts, which are then used to repair crash- damaged newer cars—unless the manufacturer changes the dimensions of the later models (Scafidi, 2014b).
But what about the theft of brand new cars? If only 2013 makes and models that were stolen somewhere within the United States during 2013 are the focus of attention, then an entirely different list emerges. This ranking appears in the third
T A B L E 4.5 Which Vehicle Owners Suffered the Most Thefts?
Rank All Vehicles Stolen During 2013 Make/Model NICB
Only New 2013 Models Stolen During 2013 NICB
Theft Rate of 2011 Models Stolen During 2011 NHTSA Rate per 1,000
1 Honda/Accord Nissan/Altima Dodge/Charger 5 2 Honda/Civic Ford/Fusion Mitsubishi/Galant 4 3 Chevrolet/Pickup Trucks Ford/Full Size Pickup Cadillac/STS 4 4 Ford/Pickup Trucks Toyota/Corolla Lamborghini/Gallardo 4 5 Toyota/Camry Chevrolet/Impala Hyundai/Accent 4 6 Dodge/Pickup Trucks Hyundai/Elantra Chevrolet/HHR 3 7 Dodge/Caravan Dodge/Charger Chevrolet/Aveo 3 8 Jeep/Cherokee Chevrolet/Malibu Chevrolet/Impala 3 9 Toyota/Corolla Chevrolet/Cruze Nissan/Infinity FX35 3 10 Nissan/Altima Ford/Focus Nissan/GT-R 1 3
NOTES: Column 1: NICB rankings are based on a grand total of the number of thefts of a particular make and model manufactured in previous years that were stolen during 2013, according to the FBI’s NCIC database. Column 2: NICB rankings are based on the number of thefts of a particular make and model manufactured in 2012–2013 that were stolen during 2013, according to the FBI’s NCIC database. Column 3: NHTSA rankings also are drawn from the FBI’s NCIC as well as manufacturers’ production totals. Theft rate is per 1,000 vehicles manufactured and sold to the U.S. public during 2011 and is rounded off to the nearest integer.
SOURCE: First list from NICB (Scafidi, 2014b), second list from NICB (Stewart, 2014), third list from NHTSA (2014).
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column. It also was compiled by the NICB and is derived from the FBI’s NCIC database.
A completely different ranking appears in the fourth column. This list is based on a theft rate for each vehicle that is calculated by taking into account not only the number of cars of a given make and model that are reported stolen to the police (in 2011, the latest year available) but also the number of these cars (not SUVs or trucks) that were produced and sold during 2011. In other words, this third and final ranking uses “number owned by motorists” as its denominator. The resulting rate is the number reported stolen (during 2011) for every 1,000 cars of this type on the road (during 2011). This list from the National Highway Transportation and Safety Administration (NHTSA) also is calculated from stolen car reports in the FBI’s NCIC database. (No ranking system uses insurance company files about vehicles reported by their owners as stolen.) This ranking appears in the fourth column of Table 4.5.
Obviously, Table 4.5 demonstrates that there are no simple and direct answers to the crucial ques- tions, “Which cars are most attractive to thieves?” and “Which drivers should be most cautious about where they park their cherished possession?” The key risk factors appear to be the make, model, and year of the car; its resale value; the demand for it by chop shops that fence stolen parts; and how easy or difficult it is to break into, start up, and drive away. Insurance records confirm a counterintuitive pat- tern: For several reasons, as cars age, they are more likely to be targeted. If the model lines are not substantially redesigned, then stolen sheet metal crash parts from the older cars can be used by illicit collision body shops to repair damaged newer ones. Also, older cars are less likely to be equipped with the latest state-of-the-art antitheft devices that thieves have not yet learned how to defeat. Another reason is that as cars wear out and depre- ciate, their owners have less incentive to maintain security devices in good working order and to vigi- lantly observe precautions about where they park their less valuable vehicles. Because most cars have a life expectancy of 7–10 years, security experts warn owners never to let their guard down (see