Is the Problem Growing or Subsiding?
How many people know what it is like to be impersonated? How rapidly are their ranks increas- ing? To address these concerns, it is necessary to ask “What are the yearly incidence and longer term prevalence rates?” A wide range of estimates can be found because of variations in the definitions used (what is included and excluded) and the meth- ods of collecting data (complaints filed vs. survey findings and subsequent projections to the entire population). Inconsistencies about definitions of
the crime and its victims persist. Three databases estimate the size of the problem and indicate how its dimensions are changing over time. But the find- ings of these three monitoring efforts do not always match or coincide. The oft-repeated warning that identity theft is America’s fastest growing crime implies a steady upward trend that is difficult to verify. Different impressions can be derived from the data assembled in Table 4.8.
The NCVS is a valuable source of estimates about the prevalence and incidence of identity theft. Questions about identity theft were added to the NCVS in 2004. The percentage of victim- ized households rose between 2005 and 2009 from 5.5 to 7.3 percent but then declined a bit in 2010 to 7 percent. Figures for 2011 are not available, but in 2012 the proportion remained constant at 7 percent of that year’s sample. Therefore, the proportion of the sample that has experienced identity theft had leveled out. In terms of sheer numbers, an esti- mated 16.6 million persons experienced one or more successful deceptions or attempts at imperson- ation in 2012. Over 34 million people over the age of 16 had experienced one or more incidents of attempted or completed identity theft at some point in their lives as of 2012, according to the NCVS (Harrell and Langton, 2013) (see the third column in Table 4.8).
The FTC operates an identity theft data clearinghouse called the Consumer Sentinel Network. It receives information from about 150 law enforcement agencies and collects details from online complaint forms and calls to its hotline (877- IDTHEFT). The FTC bases its estimates about how many people have had their identities stolen on unverified incident reports that have been pour- ing in to this monitoring system since it was set up in 1997 (FTC, 2011). From these complaints, the FTC projected that as many as 8 million Americans suffered from a brush with identify theft during 2008. That figure rose to an estimated 9 million during 2010. As for the actual number of com- plaints, they peaked in 2008 and then declined, but bounced back to an all-time high in 2012 before slipping a bit in 2013 (FTC, 2014) (see the second column in Table 4.8).
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But the number of identity theft victims reached new heights in 2009 before dropping back in 2010. The number of victims then rose substantially for the next three years and in 2013 was not far below its all-time high, according to an annual self-report survey sponsored by a financial services company (Javelin, 2014) (see the last col- umn in Table 4.8).
In sum, as of 2013, the problem of identity theft had stabilized at an intolerably high level that was bothersome to millions of people each year, according to the Justice department’s self- report survey, a private company’s annual survey, and the federal government’s repository for con- sumer complaints. Regardless of which of these three sources of data is cited, two conclusions must be drawn from Table 4.8. First, in terms of trends, the problem of identity theft is no longer steadily getting worse with each passing year. Sec- ond, in terms of relative frequencies, the projected estimates of many millions of individuals and households afflicted by identity theft are much greater each year than the total number suffering from serious property crimes, as recorded by the
UCR as well as the NCVS. The ranks of those who were impersonated by an impostor far out- number the sum total of people whose homes were burglarized and whose motor vehicles were stolen.
As with other categories of interpersonal crime, underreporting undercuts the accuracy of these official and unofficial statistics. Some persons who detect telltale signs of identity theft do not bring their monetary troubles to the attention of law enforcement agencies, and some who do seek assis- tance are rebuffed. In both 2010 and 2013, most persons (a little over 60 percent) who contacted the FTC to file a complaint that their identities were stolen also notified a law enforcement agency about their situation. However, 7 percent said that the police would not take their report (FTC, 2011; 2014). Reporting rates to the police actually might be much lower and declining when measured by a different method. Of all those who told inter- viewers that their identities had been stolen, only about 17 percent filed complaints with their local law enforcement agency in 2007, according to the NCVS (Langton and Planty, 2010). By 2012