Profilers Are Not Accurate
The first tenet that sporadically appears to emerge from the literature considering offender homology has been the proposition that profilers have failed to demonstrate accuracy in their predictions. A perplexing aspect has been its exposition which, at times, appears quite truncated in its coverage concerning the full scope of available material produced over the decades suggestive of the contrary (see Kocsis, 2006a, 2006b, 2010, 2013, Kocsis et al., 2008).
In considering the gamut of evidence connotative of accuracy among profilers, the vast number of semibiographical case studies describing accurate predictions by pro- filers should be noted. Examples include writings of Douglas and Olshaker (1995) and Hazelwood and Michaud (2002). Likewise, some consideration should be made of the various feedback surveys examining police personnel’s satisfaction with criminal pro- files and thus the anecdotally perceived accuracy of supplied profiles (e.g., Copson, 1995; Jackson, Van Koppen, & Herbrink, 1993). While reliance upon such sources has been cautioned against in the context of their acting as stand-alones or substitutes for more scientifically grounded evidence (see Kocsis, 2006a, 2009), in the present frame- work of offering a broad appraisal of all available sources of evidence suggestive of accuracy, these accounts and feedback studies provide an important starting point.
In a similar context, reference to the very early study examining accuracy among profilers conducted by the FBI Behavioral Sciences Unit (Institutional Research and Development Unit, FBI Academy, 1981) should also be acknowledged. While this internal document does not appear to have been publicly released, citation of its find- ings concerning a reported accuracy ratio of approximately 80% has featured in the scholarly literature (e.g., Pinizzotto, 1984). Finally, some note should also be made of more recent research such as that of Safarik, Jarvis, and Nussbaum (2000) that pro- vides some qualitatively formulated evaluations regarding the proficient application of criminal profiling.
The first scientifically grounded and published research to directly and empirically examine accuracy among profilers occurred via three small studies reported in Pinizzotto and Finkel (1990). All of these studies involved quasi-experimental case simulations whereby groups of participants (such as profilers, psychologists, detec- tives, and students) were required to undertake various profiling tasks concerning theProfilers Are Not AccurateProfilers Are Not Accurate