Theorizing About Risk Factors: Figuring Out Why Certain Groups Suffer More Often Than Others
Theoretical explanations start as hypotheses that answer questions that begin with “Why?” After making an empirical generalization (an observation based on patterns or trends that emerged when the data were analyzed) theorists are inclined to ask, “What accounts for this?” For example, during the warmer months, there are more unlawful entries (burglaries accomplished without using force to get in) and stranger rapes. This empirical generalization about the seasonality of certain illegal activities requires an explanation. Why should
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burglary and rape exhibit a predictable cycle of increases and decreases during the course of a year? An offender-centered explanation might pro- pose that burglars and rapists are more active during warmer weather. Another line of thought could be that something about their intended targets changes with the seasons. Perhaps behavior patterns during warm weather create greater opportunities for pre- dators to stalk their quarry. During the summer, people spend more time outside and are more likely to leave windows open while they are away from home. As a result, strangers find more occasions to assault girls and women sexually, and prowlers find more unprotected homes to invade (Dodge, 1988).
One of the founders of victimology (see Von Hentig, 1941, 1948) zeroed in on presumed weak- nesses and special vulnerabilities of entire groups— what today would be called risk factors. He was convinced that certain personal attributes played a part in determining susceptibility to attack. The mentally retarded (because they were less aware of dangers), newly arrived immigrants (unfamiliar with the language and customs), minorities (not given
the same degree of protection by law enforcement authorities), less-educated individuals, and very inexperienced people were pictured as attractive targets for exploitation by offenders employing deception and fraud. Con artists swindled those who were greedy, heartbroken, depressed, or lone- some with legendary ease. Physically handicapped people, the elderly and frail, the very young, and persons with impaired judgment and dulled senses due to intoxication were assumed to be easy prey for robbers and assailants. According to this typo- logical approach, a varied collection of psychologi- cal, biological, social, and demographic factors set whole categories of people apart as particularly vul- nerable (McShane and Emeka, 2011).
Why Various Groups Experience Differential Risks: Routine Activities and Specific Lifestyles
Most victimologists are not satisfied with explana- tions that emphasize a single vulnerability factor that is biological (gender, age, or race), psychological