Discussion Forum 5
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Discussion Forum 5
Do you believe that all individuals use probabilities consciously in everyday activities to make decisions? Why or why not?
Yes, I believe that all individuals use probabilities consciously in everyday activities to make decisions. Probability has a lot of real-life applications in the daily lives of people, which makes it a common way of life. People mostly use these probabilities consciously to make important decisions in their lives. For instance, people make weather forecasts to predict what might happens over the day to prepare for it (Nethravathi, 2022). As a result, they can decide to carry along gumboots and umbrellas in case it rains. Such an example is a deliberate use of probability to predict the weather. Similarly, Coaches use probability to determine the strengths and weaknesses of a particular team or player by checking their past records and outcomes (Nethravathi, 2022).
I see these applications as conscious because these people apply probability knowing. However, these users may not know the name of what they are applying as a probability. I would not consider not knowing the name as unconscious use of a methodology but just using a known methodology without knowing its universal or scientific name. However, people use probability with utmost consciousness to make decisions. For instance, if a teenager saw his/her mother collapse for the first time, he/she may panic and mourn, fearing the sick mother might die. However, if that incidence continues to occur for the third and fifth time, the teenager may be brave because he/she shall have seen many times the mother collapsed but recovers later, maybe after some treatments. Even though the teenager might not know what probability is, he/she is consciously applying it to understand that the parent is likely to recover after seeing many such outcomes.
References
Nethravathi, C. (2022). Probability in Real Life. CUEMATH. https://www.cuemath.com/learn/mathematics/probability-in-real-life/