Probability and Expectation

Probability and Expectation

Probability and Expectation
Probability and Expectvation

Probability and Expectation The intelligence community has jargon to describe the likelihood of different events.2 To say that an event—such as a country’s developing a nuclear weapon in the next five years—is of the lowest likelihood is to call the event “conceivable.” To assert that the event is more likely, but the chance of it hap- pening is less than 50%, is to describe the event as “possible.” The event is “probable” if its occurrence is just over 50%, and it is “likely” when it is in the

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